|
EUR/USD Sentiment Shift; NFP |
|
|
Written by Jason
|
|
Friday, 06 May 2005 |
Heading into the American trading session, the EUR/USD was range
trading while cautiously awaiting the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls data. The
concensus forecast was +175k jobs added in April. The real number
turned out to be +274k, shattering the economists' forecast. This immediately sent the
EUR/USD tumbling with fresh shorts and panicky EUR bulls.
Write Comment (0 Comments) |
|
Read more...
|
|
|
DJ US Posts $60.30B Nov Trade Deficit; Consensus $53.6B |
|
|
Written by Jason
|
|
Wednesday, 12 January 2005 |
This came as quite a shock to the market and the Euro started a blazing rise of fury taking out numerous stops along the way. A quick note, a sharp rally occured before this news was released that quickly corrected itself to exactly the 50% retracement just minutes before the trade news appeared. It's fascinating to see how technical's can setup for a move. Anyway moving on, I avoided the initial jolt of buying in preference of a more risk averse entry which occured just before the 33% retracement @ 1.3208. From there my initial target was 1.3250 which was strong resistance from the past (former congestion area & last Friday's high) followed by 1.3287 which is the 261.8% extension of the first move upward. On the way up, shorts were getting obliterated as the war raged on between bull and bear before 3250's test which was a rich source of stops.
Write Comment (0 Comments) |
|
|
U.S. Intl. Trade Due Tomorrow; Consensus for Improvement |
|
|
Written by Jason
|
|
Tuesday, 11 January 2005 |
Tomorrow the anticipated U.S. international trade balance will be reported for Nov '04. The obvious concensus is an improvement over October's -$55 billion trade deficit given the dollar's obvious decline in the latter month's of 2004. Today there seems to a sense of uncertainty in the market, however sticking to our TA we notice an obvious bear flag on the 233min chart very close to the 61.8% retrace of friday's move. So despite our recent bullish slant on the hourly (and below) timeframe, we must now re-shift to a more bearish slant. Part of being a trader is taking things as they come and not holding an overly partial view of the market one way or another. The difficult of this lies in the way our brain functions. The neocortex is functionally dissociated from the limbic system which means not only that feelings of conviction may attach to utterly contradictory ideas in different people, but that they can do so in the same person at different times. In plain english, the same brain can support opposite views with equally intense emotion, depending upon the demands of the survival perceived by its primitive components. (Prechter) Learn to control your emotion so you can view the markets objectively at all times.
Write Comment (0 Comments) |
|
|
EUR/USD Consolidating After Drop; Retracements Eyed |
|
|
Written by Jason
|
|
Monday, 10 January 2005 |
After Friday's 200 pip drop, the focus turned to the fib retracement. At price started consolidating toward the fib levels, our short term bias remained short as the overall trends are down.
Write Comment (0 Comments) |
|
|
Weak NFP Numbers Shrugged - U.S. Recovery Speculation |
|
|
Written by Jason
|
|
Friday, 07 January 2005 |
Non-farm Payroll number for December '04 was released today @ +157k below the 175k concensus, however despite the missed the missed target, the recent number does defend the argument for US growth & recovery. NFP usually results in the most volatile trading price movement and today was no different as it spiked down then back up in a relatively short period of time. However, we ended up continuing lowered & I triggered a short on the basis of a failed support line & lower top of wave 2 as well as a 55min CCI ghost/shamu pattern. CCI is an excellent indicator for predicting reversals. Earlier, before NFP was released strong downtrend resistance line was broken upward, but perhaps too much shouldn't be looked into it considering we were so close to NFP.
Beautiful elliott wave pattern on the 13min chart. All the rules apply on this chart, including the alternation rule in which wave 2 must differ from wave 4 in terms of time & price. Wave 2 was much more aggresive than wave 4 and lasted a shorter amount of time.
Write Comment (0 Comments) |
|
|
|
<< Start < Prev 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Next > End >>
|
| Results 71 - 80 of 82 |
Forex Strategy 
